My favorite saying in all of rocketry is "no bucks, no Buck Rogers." It was in the book and movie "The Right Stuff" by Tom Wolfe (absolutely the best book about us flyers ever). It is my favorite saying because it encapsulates what is the immovable object that impedes a flourishing space program: money.
Another saying along the same lines that appeared in the same book (and movie) is the answer to the question of what makes rockets fly. "Funding" was the rejoinder. So true, so true. That book sure did have a lot of right stuff in it.
So without a firm commitment to continuously fund an expensive (and dangerous) program, we are all left instead to ponder what could have been. Since governments have failed to step up to the plate, it is time for industry to step in and lead the way. The only way that can happen, however, is if industry has the ability to make a profit from space. So far, that has been the great eluder.
Up to now.
We intend to (finally) fold everything that has been discussed in this diary series into one neat package. We will show how to generate an enormous amount of money, relatively quickly, that will pay a 500% Return On Investment for investors, and leave us with enough cash to build the LEO space station and the Lunar Surface station.
Specifically, we will show how to bring back material that can only be found on the moon, that is very easy to mine, and will sell for the equivalent price of diamonds (hence our affectionately named "lunar diamond" for this substance). Of course, the more of this substance we bring back, the less it will sell for, eventually bottoming out. Even at the bottomed out price, it would still be worth its weight in gold (therefore turning Lunar Diamond into Lunar Gold).
Which begs the decidedly Keynesian question:
If the moon where made of gold, would we go get it?We at NMSTARG believe that the answer is yes, provided that we can find enough customers to buy this rare commodity, as is true in most business ventures.
So what is this secret stuff that can only be found on the moon and sells for the price of diamond, you may ask? Great question! A hopefully great answer lies below.
Before we begin, the reader needs to understand that the dollar figures presented in this missive are still in flux. As we wait for R&D to come back with the final figures, we present this diary with the dollar figures that we currently have. As the figures update, so will this diary.
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We need to make some quick cash so that we can pay back investors and build our space station and moon base. We have a plan that involves sending humans to the moon, and returning with about 9,000 pounds of moon rocks and dirt. We then want to sell the lunar material for a tidy profit.
Yes, you read that correctly. The secret ingredient that sells for the price of diamond, and can only be found on the moon is... moon rocks.
Price of Lunar Material
The price per carat of lunar rocks and dirt varies wildly, depending on how they arrived on Earth.
Lunar material ejected from the moon during cratering activity that lands on the earth is called lunar meteorites, and they sell for over $1,000 per carat.
As part of the Lunar X Prize, some companies are trying for a sample return. The going price seems to be about $2,000 per carat.
However, there is evidence for even far higher prices. A small amount of lunar material brought back by the Apollo astronauts was stolen. A judge needed to determine the value of the material. The conclusion was $10,000 per carat (1970 USD), which would be over $40,000 per carat today.
As we can see, this material can sell for an enormous cost, thus helping to offset the other enormous cost that is the space program. We want to mount a Mission to the Moon. We will carry the parts to LEO, where it will be assembled. A crew will then board and embark on what will really become a truly historic voyage.
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Flight Order
We will use an OTV to get the crew home. A second OTV will include a Lunar Lander Kit. This vehicle will (obviously) land on the moon. The 2 vehicles will be docked and the entire stack placed onto a LTV.
A smaller CM, called a Lunar Crew Module (LCM) is used for these missions. These CMs are lighter than a regular CM (and hence, less elbow room), and so will be able to transport back lunar material.
Six Z-1 Spacesuits will be attached to the side of the LCM on the OTV Lander, and 2 Z-1 Spacesuits will be attached to the side of the LCM attached to the Return OTV.
The OTV Lander will have attached to its side 4 containers that the astronauts will fill with lunar dirt. This is what will pay for the mission.
Support vehicles and other structures will need to be added to help assemble the stack. Astronauts will have to conduct EVAs. The whole thing should take about 6 months to complete, and will consists of flying the Skylon spacecraft from the Spaceport twice a week for about 6 months, or 50 flights. We will fly to the moon twice, collecting lunar material both times.
All 50 flights are listed below.
WEEK FLIGHT PAYLOAD
01 01 OUV-CM-Airlock
01 02 SPM
02 03 OWT-PRM
02 04 Cargo Pallet: OTV Lander Kit, (4) LGC, L5Sat-SRB, L2Sat-SRB
03 05 OTV-LCM
03 06 OTV-LCM
04 07 GTV LH2 Tank
04 08 GTV LH2 Tank
05 09 GTV LH2 Tank
05 10 GTV LO2 Tank + RL10-B
06 11 GTV LO2 Tank + RL10-B
06 12 GTV LO2 Tank + RL10-B
07 13 OUV-CM-Airlock
07 14 SPM
08 15 LO2PM
08 16 LO2PM
09 17 LO2RT
09 18 LO2RT
10 19 LO2RT
10 20 LO2RT
11 21 LO2RT
11 22 LO2RT
12 23 LO2RT
12 24 LO2RT
13 25 OUV-CM-Airlock
13 26 SPM
Flights 27 - 50 are a mirror image of flight 03 - 26. Hence, the second lunar flight is assembled in 12 weeks instead of 13.
Each flight will have only 9 different payloads on any given flight. An image of each payload is below.
The Skylon spacecraft delivers all the pieces into LEO, where they will need to be assembled using Portable Remote Manipulator arms and crew EVAs.
The OUV-CM-Airlock combination becomes a temporary mini space station, where the assembly crew will live while they work on the lunar stack. The crew and equipment will be rotated out every 5 weeks.
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Flight To The Moon
Once everything is assembled, the whole becomes greater than the sum of its parts. The Return OTV stays docked to the OUV-CM-Airlock assembly until the lunar crew arrives. The lunar crew then undocks with the Airlock, and docks with the OTV Lander on the lunar stack.
Once the crew is aboard, the LTV fires its 3 engines for the Trans Lunar Injection (TLI) orbit. After a 5.5 day trip, the crew finally arrives in Lunar Polar Orbit. The Return OTV/OTV Lander combination then separates from the LTV. They now have 18 days to land and return to orbit before the moon lines up again for the 4 day return trip home.
The OTV Lander undocks and lands, and the astronauts take a walk on the moon (I believe that these occasions will be a hell of a lot more dramatic and exciting than the way I just described them here).
The astronauts then proceed to fill the 4 containers attached to the side of the OTV. Once the containers are filled, the OTV Landers lifts off and docks with the Return OTV. The 4 lunar soil containers are transfered to the Return OTV, and the Return OTV undocks with the OTV Lander. The Return OTV then returns to Earth. Skylon spacecraft return the crew home, and another Skylon brings the lunar booty back to the Spaceport. Only then will the champaign bottles be opened...
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Startup
The money needed to accomplish our adventures will not be cheap; however, it will at the same time, not be that overly expensive.
Also, there are really 2 major sticking points at this time: The lack of informed consent with our preferred location, Spaceport America in NM; and the lack of investors to continue developing the Skylon spacecraft.
The Spaceport is the biggest sticking point to our plan. Because informed consent does not look like it is going to pass, Spaceport America is rendered useless. So, we plan to purchase it from the state of NM!
PRICE ITEM
$200M Spaceport America acquisition
$100M 2nd 10,000 ft reinforced concrete runway
$200M Payload Integration Facility
$100M Skylon Maintenance Facility
$100M Astronaut Training Facility
$100M Food Preparation Facility
$100M Support Aircraft [(1) C-17 cargo aircraft, (3) H-3 helicopters, (1) Learjet 45]
$100M Support Aircraft Hanger Facility
$100M Power Generation Facility (Solar panels used to generate all electrical power)
$300M Propellant Storage Facility (includes LH2, LO2, LHe, LN2, JP-4, and Jet-A1)
$1,500M
Also, in the same vein, we will purchase Reaction Engines, Ltd (REL), so that we can get the Skylon spacecraft developed and in production.
We will hire approximately 1,000 people in the beginning, eventually hiring 3,000 when operating at full capacity. Each employee will have a generous compensation package that will include insurance (including health, vision, dental, life, etc.) provided for free. We estimate this comes to about $10,000 per employee per month, or $10M/month.
The breakdown for the startup costs are as follows:
QUANT UNIT PRICE TOTAL PRICE ITEM
3 $750M $2,250M Skylon Spacecraft
5 $30M $150M OUV
5 $30M $150M CM
5 $20M $100M Airlock
1 $75M $75M SPM
2 $20M $40M OWT
2 $10M $20M PRM
2 $1M $2M Cargo Pallet
2 $3M $6M OTV lander Kit
8 $1M $8M Lunar Diamond Carrier
4 $80M $320M OTV
4 $17M $68M Lunar Exploration Kit
6 $30M $180M GTV LH2 Tank
6 $30M $180M GTV LO2 Tank + RL10-B Rocket Engine
4 $50M $200M LO2PM
2 $5M $10M L5 Satellite
2 $5M $10M L2 Satellite
4 $2M $8M SRB
16 $30M $480M LO2RT
25 $8M $200M Z-1 Spacesuit
1 $1,500M $1,500M Spaceport America purchase and build up
6 $10M $60M Payroll
6 $10M $60M Business Expenses (utilities, insurance, etc.)
50 $22M $1,106M Skylon Spaceflight
1 $2,500M $2,500M Reaction Engines, Ltd purchase
6 $30M $180M Previous 6 months of operations
6 $22M $133M Skylon Flight Test
1 $5M $5M Cash On Hand
$10,000M
Therefore, the startup costs for our little adventure is ten billion dollars. In comparison, NASA spent almost twenty billion dollars last year alone.
Since each soil container holds around 1,000 kg, we will bring back over 4,000 kg (over 9,000 lbs) of lunar diamonds to sell.
The profit that we make is as follows:
Batch Price Weight Total Price
1st Batch: $40,000/carat at 600 lbs = $54,480M
2nd Batch: $10,000/carat at 1,200 lbs = $27,240M
3rd Batch: $2,500/carat at 2,400 lbs = $13,620M
4th Batch: $625/carat at 4,800 lbs = $6,810M
Last Batch: $125/carat at 4,773 lbs = $2,708M
$104,858M
Average Price: $2,493/carat
Investors will get a 500% Return on Investment (ROI). Therefore, they will earn a total of $60,000M.
Our company will recieve the difference, or about $45,000M. This will be more than enough money to complete our dream of a viable, robust, and profitable space commercialization program.
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Expenses
The initial investment of $10B will be cover the following expenses every fiscal year:
FY2014
$2,500M Reaction Engines, Limited (REL) Acquisition
$200M Spaceport America Acquisition
$300M Spaceport America Upgrades and Additions
$750M Skylon #1
$736M Lunar Exploration Equipment
$4,486M
FY2015
$500M Spaceport America Upgrades and Additions
$750M Skylon #2
$736M Lunar Exploration Equipment
$1,986M
FY2016
$500M Spaceport America Upgrades and Additions
$750M Skylon #3
$736M Lunar Exploration Equipment
$1,986M
FY2017
$300M Payroll and Business Operations
$133M Flight Testing
$1,106M 50 Skylon flights
$1,538M
FY2018
$60,000M Investor payback at 500% ROI
$11,247M 1 year Payroll and Business Operations
$1,000M (2) Skylon Spacecraft
$72,247M
FY2019
$11,247M 1 year Payroll and Business Operations
$11,247M
FY2020
$11,247M 1 year Payroll and Business Operations
$11,247M
FY2021
$11,247M 1 year Payroll and Business Operations
$11,247M
These expenses will be met by the revenue generated in the future (to be discussed in a future diary).
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In Closing
As we have demonstrated, funding is what make rockets fly. Except now, we have made enough money to make the investors very happy, and we have enough to get our infrastructure in space. After all of this, we will need to continue selling space services for a profit so that we can continue to keep our toehold in space.
Of course, that's a story for another day.
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Addendum
Coalition
- Spaceport America
- R.E.L. Skylon
- Boeing
- Bigelow
- Golden Spike
- Project 1 -
- Project 2 -
- Project 3 - Chapter 08: Space Ships - [Boeing]
- Project 4 - Chapter 12: Lunar Ships - [Golden Spike]
- Project 1 -
- Project 2 - Chapter 05: Space Plane - [R.E.L. Skylon]
- Project 3 - Chapter 06: Space Stations - [Bigelow]
- Project 4 - Chapter 04: Space Port - [Spaceport America]
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